Assumptions and Conventions

Preface

Joint Foreword to World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report

Executive Summary

Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies

        Recovery Is Stronger than Expected, but
        Speed Varies

        Financial Conditions Are Easing, but Not for
        All Sectors

        Capital Is Again Flowing to Emerging Economies

        Policy Support Has Been Essential in Fostering
        Recovery

        Multispeed Recovery to Continue during 2010–11

        Infl ation Pressures Are Generally Subdued but
        Diverge

        Important Risks Remain amid Sharply Diminished
        Room for Policy Maneuvers

        Policies Need to Sustain and Strengthen Recovery

        Global Demand Rebalancing: e Role of Credibility
        and Policy Coordination

        Appendix 1.1. Commodity Market Developments
        and Prospects

        References
 

Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives

        A Stimulus-Driven U.S. Recovery Is under
        Way

        Asia Is Staging a Vigorous and Balanced
        Recovery

        Europe Is Facing an Uneven Recovery and
        Complex Policy Challenges

        The CIS Economies Are Recovering at a
        Moderate Pace

        Latin America and the Caribbean Are
        Recovering at a Robust Pace

        The Middle East and North Africa Region
        Is Recovering at a Good Pace

        Africa Is Coming through the Crisis Well
 

Chapter 3. Unemployment Dynamics during Recessions and
                  Recoveries: Okun’s Law and Beyond

        Broad Labor Market Dynamics during the
        Great Recession

        Using Okun’s Law as a Framework

        Step 1: Okun’s Law across Countries
                    and over Time

        Step 2: Analyzing Unemployment Rate “Forecast Errors”

                   The Key Issues: Drivers of Great Recession
                   Dynamics and Recovery Prospects

                   Conclusions and Implications for the Recovery

        Appendix 3.1. Data Sources and Construction

        Appendix 3.2. Methodological Details

        Appendix 3.3. Analysis on Dynamic Betas Derived
                              from the Employment Version of Okun’s Law

        Appendix 3.4. Regression Results Using Employment Forecast
                              Errors and a Static Okun’s Law Specification

        Appendix 3.5. Vector Autoregression Forecasting Methodology

        References
 

Chapter 4. Getting the Balance Right: Transitioning out
                 of Sustained Current Account Surpluses

        Surplus Reversals: Definition and Anatomy

        Are Policy-Driven Surplus Reversals Detrimental
        to Growth?

        Surplus Reversals: Case Studies

        Lessons for Economies Considering a Transition out
        of External Surpluses

        Appendix 4.1. Sample for Analysis and Data Sources

        Appendix 4.2. Scoring Method Used to Group Economies

        References